As policy makers in both the developed and the developing
world grapple with the question of how best to come up with sustainable
policies, aging increasingly feature among their concerns. The demographic structure
of any country can implicate on many aspects of policy planning. It is,
therefore, important to consider the possible causes and effects of aging
populations throughout the world.
A World Health Organization (WHO) report, “Global Health
and Aging” identify falling fertility rates as one of the major causes of aging
populations. This is in line with the projections that people aged 65 years and
above across the world will reach 1.5 billion with a majority of that number
being in the developing world where fertility rates are relatively higher. The
fertility rate must be equal to the replacement level to maintain a demographic
balance between the older and younger populations respectively. A tilt in that
balance has seen the percentage of older in populations of most countries rise
since the 1970s. For instance, fertility rates in developed countries since
that period has reduced below the replacement level of two births per woman. Even
some developing countries have had reducing fertility rates during the 60 years
to 2005.
China provides a typical case study on how reduced
fertility rates can lead to an increase in aging populations. Projections
indicate that the country will have one fourth of is total population aged
above 65 years by 2050(Tex 2, para.1). This has been attributed to the efforts
by the Chinese authorities to encourage its population to have fewer children
beginning in the 1970s and 1980s. The program was part of the wider initiative
towards modernizing the Chinese economy. It was also around the same time when
the one child policy was introduced. At 1.6 births per woman, China’s fertility
rate is lower relative to both the U.K and the U.S. Chinese authorities tend to
attribute this low fertility rate to the success of the one child policy. Population
experts, however, disagree. Some hold the view that the decline in fertility
rate would still have continued even without the policy. Though seemingly
untenable, supporters of this view opine that the policy only acted to make
many Chinese have children at an early age.
Also contributing to aging populations are increases in
life expectancies in a number of countries (Text 1, para.4). There has been a
shift of the past from diseases claiming mostly children to those claiming
adults such that many people tend to grow to later adulthood. This could perhaps be due to improvements in
healthcare over the same period.
The most challenging consequence of an aging population
to any country is the pressure on fiscal sustainability (Text 3, para.1). This
is explained by a confluence of so many other factors. For one, old age is
associated with a number of health conditions. It is around this time when
people are vulnerable to no communicable diseases which are a strain on
healthcare resources. Other resource draining health conditions associated with
old age include dementia. Beyond the disease burden, aging population also remove
a significant portion of the population from active participation in the
economy. The examples of Greece and
other countries in the EU amply illustrate the situation. Part of the recession
in those countries was due to unsustainable debt burdens as the governments had
to finance old age related spending through borrowing. Recent reforms in areas
such as pensions have alleviated the problem to some extent.
Coming out from the above discussion is an understanding
that aging populations is a challenge to all countries. The exact nature of
that challenge is, however, specific to each country. Different conditions in
each country make the difference.
Let us not forget that aging is just normal for everyone.
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